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The Fiscal Implications of an Older Population in Northern Ireland

This research aims to identify the fiscal impact of the changing age profile of Northern Ireland.

As taxation and expenditure patterns change according to the age structure of the population, the research seeks to model the financial impact of a change in the population age structure of Northern Ireland.

The NICVA Centre for Economic Empowerment research report looks at three components of public expenditure which represent 74% of total identifiable public expenditure in Northern Ireland.

They are:

  • Social security benefits
  • State pension
  • Education, health and care (collectively referred to as ʻservicesʼ).

The research compares this expenditure with revenue to show the overall fiscal balance. This revenue accounts for 70% of the total revenue attributable to Northern Ireland (the main omissions are: a proportion of VAT, stamp duty, business rates, and corporation, inheritance and capital gains taxes).

The research does not take into account indirect financial contributions made by the population through, for example, volunteering. Instead it focuses on what is recorded by government in its fiscal balance sheet.

In this dataset

We have included the data behind the figures published in the main report. Most of this comes from the the New Policy Institute Population Tax and Expenditure Model.

The impact of changes are based on the Office of National Statistics 2012-based population projections for Northern Ireland (ONS open data), focusing on 2045 (30 years into the future), with an initial starting point of 2015, and mid-way calculations made for 2030.

Dataset Info

These fields are compatible with DCAT, an RDF vocabulary designed to facilitate interoperability between data catalogs published on the Web.
new policy institute (npi)
Modified Date
Release Date
Open Definition
Spatial / Geographical Coverage Area (WKT)
POLYGON ((-8.20679 55.3541, -5.46021 55.3541, -5.46021 54.0271, -8.20679 54.0271, -8.20679 55.3541))
Spatial / Geographical Coverage Location
Northern Ireland
Temporal Coverage
01/01/2015 to 31/12/2045
Data Dictionary
Please refer to main report
Contact Name
Bob Harper
Contact Email
Public Access Level
ODI Open Data Certificate